Petrol prices in Nigeria may fall further to about N800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, following a combination of falling crude oil prices and the full implementation of the naira-for-crude initiative for local refiners. This projection, confirmed by oil marketers and industry experts, came as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced another downward adjustment in its ex-depot price, bringing it to N835 per litre, 9am News Reports.
This marks Dangote’s third price reduction in six weeks, and the second within a span of just seven days. The N30 reduction from N865 to N835 per litre represents a 3.5% drop. A pro forma invoice reviewed by 9am News and data from petroleumprice.ng confirmed the price change.
According to the Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, the decision reflects Dangote Refinery’s commitment to making premium motor spirit (PMS) more affordable and accessible to Nigerians. The new price includes statutory charges from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
A detailed breakdown showed petrol gantry prices now stand at N835 per litre, while products sold through partners like MRS, Ardova (AP), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil will range between N890 and N920 per litre, depending on the region. Prices in Lagos have dropped to N890, while the South-West will see N900, North-Central and North-West N910, and other zones like the South-East and North-East will now pay N920 each showing a N30 reduction from previous rates.
Experts believe the recent price drop is supported by the decline in global crude prices, currently hovering around $65 per barrel, and could deepen if prices slide further toward $50 per barrel.
The full reactivation of the naira-for-crude policy has also eased forex pressures, making local refining more viable. A statement from the Ministry of Finance confirmed the long-term nature of this strategy, aimed at reducing Nigeria’s dependency on foreign exchange and boosting local refining capacity.
“The reduced price is a direct implication of the naira-for-crude deal,” said Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN). “If crude hits $50 per barrel, petrol could sell for between N650 and N700 per litre.”
However, the retail pump prices across much of the country remain unchanged, with marketers yet to transfer the cost savings to consumers. Industry insiders expect the lag to adjust once supply and logistics costs stabilise.
Additional insight from PUNCH Online revealed that the landing cost of imported petrol has fallen to N853 per litre, with spot sales at the NPSC-NOJ terminal also dropping to N853.12. The 30-day average now stands at N844.84 per litre, with six vessels importing 117,000 metric tonnes of petrol into Nigeria between April 8 and 16, via Tin Can Port in Lagos and Calabar Port in Cross River State.
This follows a significant policy meeting involving Finance Minister Wale Edun and representatives from the Dangote Refinery to review the progress of the naira-for-crude arrangement.
Despite the positive momentum, marketers caution that short-term operational costs and existing inventories priced at higher rates may delay immediate retail adjustments. Still, Dangote’s move is expected to ripple through the supply chain, potentially bringing widespread relief to consumers and strengthening Nigeria’s energy stability.
The Dangote Group reiterated its commitment to meeting domestic demand and exporting surpluses to support Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. As more stakeholders begin sourcing from the refinery, the benefits of local refining and strategic policy reforms could redefine the fuel economy and pave the way for a more stable downstream sector.
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