There are strong indications that the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy may persist, as insiders revealed that all stakeholders involved in the agreement will soon reconvene for further discussions.
The initial six-month phase of the deal, which involved the Federal Government, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), and Dangote Petroleum Refinery, expired on March 31, 2025. However, no official extension has been announced, leading Dangote Refinery to halt sales of refined petroleum products in naira.
Dangote Refinery’s Production and Imports
A recent S&P Global report indicated that in 2025, the Dangote refinery processed approximately 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, with 35% of its supply coming from international imports.
Additionally, the refinery has imported 12.6 million barrels to sustain its operations, highlighting its significant role in Nigeria’s energy sector.
With no immediate extension of the naira-for-crude arrangement, stakeholders including the Federal Government and Dangote Refinery are expected to hold talks to determine the policy’s future.
Industry analysts suggest that a continuation of the agreement could help stabilize fuel prices and forex demand in Nigeria. However, the refinery’s reliance on international crude imports may influence the final decision.
The outcome of these discussions will be crucial for the petroleum sector, affecting fuel availability, pricing, and the country’s foreign exchange dynamics.
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