Africa is on the verge of a historic energy transformation, with new refinery projects set to reach 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity by 2030. This development, revealed in the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook, positions the continent as one of the fastest-growing downstream hubs globally.
According to the report, Nigeria, Angola, and Uganda are spearheading the push with landmark projects that could redefine Africa’s role in global energy markets while reducing dependency on costly fuel imports.
At the forefront is Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which commenced operations in 2024 and is already reshaping fuel trade flows across West Africa. Complementing this is the planned 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, further consolidating Nigeria’s ambition to dominate regional refining.
Angola is equally aggressive in its downstream agenda, advancing the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery and the 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery, both expected before 2030. Uganda, through its Lake Albert basin development, is developing a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, signaling East Africa’s entry into large-scale refining.
Beyond these mega-projects, modular refineries in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo, and additional sites across Nigeria are enabling scalable capacity growth in regions with financing and infrastructure challenges. North Africa is also in motion, with Algeria’s Hassi Messaoud, Libya’s Ubari, and Egypt’s Soukhna projects aimed at boosting domestic supply security and reducing import dependency.
$100 Billion Investment Window
OPEC projects that Africa will require over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030, climbing to more than $100 billion through 2050. This includes new construction, modernization, and secondary processing upgrades. The investment push aligns with Africa’s surging energy demand, with domestic crude consumption forecast to rise from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050.
This structural shift means Africa’s crude exports could fall by over one million bpd by 2050, underscoring the urgency of building robust local value chains.
The African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies 2025, set to be held in Cape Town, will serve as a critical platform for aligning governments, financiers, and operators on next-phase refinery projects. The conference is expected to generate significant deal flow as host nations seek to cut fuel imports and capture more value from domestic crude.
A Strategic Turning Point
Africa’s downstream expansion is both a technical leap and a strategic necessity. By leveraging this momentum, the continent has the chance to move from being a raw crude exporter to becoming a resilient, competitive, and integrated energy powerhouse.
As the 9am News report highlights, the continent’s refining boom offers investors, developers, and governments an unprecedented opportunity. With billions in trade deficits to reverse and local demand soaring, the time to bet on Africa’s downstream sector is now.
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