Nigeria’s economy received a major boost in the first half of 2025 as non-oil exports surged to N18.43 trillion, more than doubling from N8.79 trillion in the same period of 2024. This impressive 109.7 per cent growth helped the country retain a strong trade surplus of N12.64 trillion despite a decline in crude oil earnings.
According to fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the increase was driven by robust exports of agricultural produce and solid minerals, underscoring Nigeria’s gradual diversification from oil dependence.
Crude oil exports, however, fell by N3.18 trillion, sliding from N28.10 trillion in H1 2024 to N24.92 trillion in H1 2025. On a quarterly basis, oil exports dropped from N12.96 trillion in Q1 2025 to N11.97 trillion in Q2. Consequently, crude oil’s share of total exports declined to 52.6 per cent, down from 71.2 per cent in the same period last year.
Despite this fall, Nigeria’s overall trade performance remained strong. Total exports stood at N43.35 trillion against imports of N30.71 trillion, leaving a trade balance of N12.64 trillion a 54.6 per cent increase compared to the N8.17 trillion surplus recorded in H1 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, the trade surplus rose by 44.3 per cent, climbing from N5.17 trillion in Q1 to N7.46 trillion in Q2.
Experts attributed the stronger performance to diversification efforts and a record decline in oil theft. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that crude oil losses from theft and metering challenges dropped to 9,600 barrels per day (bpd) in July 2025 the lowest level since 2009. This marked a 15 per cent improvement from the 2024 average of 11,300 bpd and a massive 90.7 per cent improvement compared to 2021.
Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa noted that these improvements signal structural reforms from the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, alongside tighter security collaboration and regulatory measures like metering audits. They added that the reduced oil theft is expected to deliver three major benefits to Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook:
- Improved fiscal revenue – More crude available for sales should boost FAAC allocations and ease government revenue strain.
- Stronger forex inflows – With crude oil accounting for about 85 per cent of forex earnings, reduced theft should support the naira, which has already gained 2.4 per cent this year to N1,501.50 per dollar.
- Renewed investor confidence – With oil theft at historic lows, investment appetite in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector is likely to rise, reinforcing fiscal stability.
Afrinvest concluded that while crude oil production remains below the federal government’s target of 2.01mbpd, the decline in theft represents a “structurally positive development” that strengthens Nigeria’s fiscal and external buffers.
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