The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest upward review of Nigeria’s 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast has sparked sharp disagreement among local economists and policy analysts who argue the figure is unrealistic, given the nation’s persistent economic headwinds.
9am News report that the IMF, after its 2025 Article IV consultation, raised Nigeria’s expected real GDP growth to 3.4% for next year an increase from its April forecast of 3%. The projection was largely driven by the Fund’s endorsement of President Bola Tinubu’s recent tax reforms, improvements in foreign exchange (FX) management, and renewed investor confidence.
The IMF commended the removal of multiple FX rates, the launch of the B-Match digital FX trading platform, and recent recapitalisation efforts in the banking sector, saying these steps have strengthened the naira and improved reserves to $40.9 billion by end-2024.
The Fund also highlighted Nigeria’s return to the Eurobond market for the first time in four years and hailed new tax Bills as critical to raising non-oil revenues.
Responding, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso described the report as a strong validation of the government’s difficult but necessary economic decisions. “It affirms that Nigeria is regaining credibility, anchoring expectations, and laying the foundation for inclusive, long-term growth,” Cardoso said.
Finance Minister Wale Edun also praised the IMF’s assessment, saying recent tax and FX reforms, along with improvements in agriculture, have strengthened the economy’s resilience. He noted that headline inflation fell to 22.9% in May 2025, with food inflation easing to 21.4% down from previous highs.
But Analysts Are Not Convinced
However, several local economists dismissed the IMF’s optimism as detached from Nigeria’s harsh realities.
Economist Dr Marcel Okeke described the projection as “unfounded and unrealistic”, arguing that the recently signed tax Bills have yet to take effect, while oil revenue assumptions remain shaky.
“How can more Nigerians getting poorer lead to higher GDP growth? Brent Crude is selling below the $75 benchmark used for the 2025 budget, and Nigeria’s daily crude output still lags at around 1.6 million barrels per day, far below the 2.2 million target,” Okeke said.
He also pointed to Nigeria’s ballooning public debt, now at N149 trillion as of March 2025, and an inflation rate that remains extremely high by global standards.
Echoing this skepticism, Professor Ndubisi Nwokoma, Emeritus Professor of Economics, said IMF growth estimates often fail because they overlook structural obstacles. “The reality is the same old: low purchasing power, a highly bureaucratic public sector, insecurity threatening food supply, and a weak manufacturing base. Where’s the growth going to come from?” he asked.
One Expert Says IMF Has a Point
However, Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said the Fund’s view is understandable when looking only at macroeconomic variables.
“On paper, subsidy removal, FX reform, and tax changes should yield macroeconomic benefits,” he said. “But the IMF often ignores the social costs poverty, rising production costs, and the welfare impact which is why the numbers feel disconnected from reality for many Nigerians.”
9am News report that analysts believe without urgent fixes for structural issues like power supply, logistics, and insecurity, Nigeria’s economy will remain under strain regardless of global forecasts.
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