The Nigerian federal government is weighing a major shift in its economic strategy following U.S. President Donald Trump’s 14% tariff on Nigerian exports, a move that could cost the country billions in foreign earnings and pressure its fragile economy.
Finance Minister Wale Edun disclosed on Monday that the administration is reviewing core assumptions in the 2025 national budget, including the oil benchmark and revenue forecasts, to reflect new global trade realities. He made these remarks during the Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, where he emphasized the need for strategic flexibility amid growing global economic uncertainty.
“This is a moment for reevaluation,” Edun said. “The global terrain is shifting fast, and it’s our responsibility to adapt, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities.”
The new U.S. policy introduces a 14% duty on Nigerian exports, a retaliatory measure following Nigeria’s own 27% tariff on U.S. goods. Though oil and mineral exports which make up over 90% of Nigeria’s trade with the U.S. are exempted, the impact on non-oil exports could still be significant. Nigeria exported goods worth N5.5 trillion to the U.S. in 2024, mostly dominated by petroleum products.
Still, the threat of reduced oil prices and global economic ripple effects are prompting the Tinubu administration to reexamine broader fiscal strategies. Edun acknowledged that while Nigeria’s main exports have been spared, the broader economic implications, especially on inflation and currency value, cannot be ignored.
Budget Reassessment and Domestic Strategy
The Federal Government now plans to reassess key budget metrics, including oil production targets, non-oil revenue expectations, and overall economic growth projections. Additionally, Nigeria is positioning itself to absorb potential benefits from trade disruptions in other regions, particularly Asia.
“With Vietnam hit by a 46% U.S. tariff, investors may shift operations,” Edun said. “Nigeria must be ready to present itself as a viable alternative.”
He cited the need for attractive exchange rates, investor-friendly policies, and improved infrastructure as essential pillars in this strategic pivot.
The tariff crisis has also amplified calls for better corporate governance in Nigeria’s State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The newly launched MOFI Corporate Governance Scorecard aims to enforce ethical leadership, transparency, and financial accountability across the more than 50 SOEs under the Ministry of Finance Incorporated’s oversight.
Only 20 of MOFI’s 52 portfolio companies have submitted audited accounts in the past three years, according to MOFI CEO Armstrong Takang. He emphasized that weak governance continues to hinder national economic growth.
“This is not just about cleaning up the past. It’s about preparing for a future where Nigeria can leverage its public institutions to raise capital, like the Bank of India which raised €1.879 billion recently,” Takang stated.
A national asset register is also in the works to provide full visibility into the government’s holdings, forming a base for more strategic investment planning.
Shamsudeen Usman, MOFI Chairman, stressed that conflict-of-interest policies, whistleblower protections, and a robust risk management framework are now being embedded across the organization to make it a model for public-sector governance.
The prevailing message from government officials is clear: while Trump’s tariff on Nigerian exports poses short-term risks, it may also accelerate long-overdue reforms that could unlock Nigeria’s true economic potential.
“This country is too endowed to be poor,” Takang concluded.
As Nigeria navigates a new chapter in global trade dynamics, policymakers are betting that transparency, efficient public enterprises, and a recalibrated budget will help steer the economy through these uncertain waters.
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